Forecasting air cargo demand and price elasticity for a major Australian airport

Background and context

The client, an Australian airport, was in the process of an apron redevelopment plan with associated cargo terminal and infrastructure implications
To inform their strategic decisions, the client wanted to better understand the (1) breakdown for cargo volumes including an outlook and (2) risk of cargo volume leakage under various handling price increase scenarios

Aevean’s Role

Aevean developed an Australia air trade outlook until 2050, and in parallel, a capacity forecast for the same period
Aevean combined the demand and supply forecasts to analyze cargo modal shift sensitivity to ocean and alternative airports for various price increase scenarios
Based on these scenarios, we delivered pricing strategy recommendations and practical business solutions to support the client’s decision-making

Outcome & Value Add

The client gained a clear understanding of recommended pricing strategies and their implications for relations with CTOs, freight forwarders, and airlines through 2050
The client received a forecasting model that allows them to test different pricing and growth assumptions and observe the resulting spillover to alternative transport modes and competing airports.